Air Force supply chains are not ready to surge for war

Here’s a slice from an Aviation Week article, USAF Logistics Chief Raises Urgent Warning On Surge Capacity:

A recent internal study shows more than nine out of 10 repairs performed by the defense industry on U.S. Air Force aircraft are by a sole-source vendor, the service’s top logistics official said on April 28.

 

The Air Force’s reliance on single sources for nearly all aircraft repairs outside of military-operated depots raises stark concerns about the defense industry’s ability to support the needs of combat forces in a time of war, said Lt. Gen. Warren Berry, deputy chief of staff for logistics, engineering and force protection.

 

The internal review showed 80% of all demand for aircraft parts is satisfied by a repair instead of a replacement, said Berry, speaking to the Military Aviation Logistics and Maintenance Symposium. Of those parts repairs, 92% can only be performed by a single supplier. “That scares the crap out of me,” Berry said.

The issue Berry is pointing to with sole source is that the companies have streamlined their capital investments and supply chains to fulfill the minimum order quantities. Most parts are repaired rather than produced in high quantities. This system might be optimized for peacetime where you need the lowest cost and length of time to delivery doesn’t matter. But it leaves little slack to surge and meet wartime requirements.

Of course, this is all a result of DoD policy. Surge capacity is a tradeoff, and so decisions must always talked about on the margin.

The other part of this Berry didn’t touch on is that in a contested theater, it will be a struggle to supply all the spares and repairs to the point of demand. The Marines, for example, generally acknowledge their logistics will be contested and are looking to 3D printing parts on site. These items don’t need the same reliability and life as the OEM parts. They will just need to be used a relatively short time due to attrition in a wartime scenario. Reconstituting combat forces quickly is the priority, rather than leanness of supply chain.