General AI and the principle of optimism

January 1, 2019 Eric Lofgren 0

With recent developments in our understanding of heuristic processes and their simulation by digital computers, the way is open to deal scientifically with ill-structured problems – to make the computer coextensive with the human mind.

Paul Romer on culture and technology: lessons for acquisition

December 17, 2018 Eric Lofgren 0

Do you think that the distinction between growth at the frontier and catch up growth is always so well defined? So if you think about China, they seem to have innovations: how quickly they can build things; they have an autocratic government, but they’ve managed to keep reasonable stability and the public on board. Isn’t that kind of innovation like a technological innovation and their growth in a way is at some other frontier rather than being just catch up?

Is science slowing down? A dissenting opinion.

December 3, 2018 Eric Lofgren 3

We are confronted with the fact that Moore’s Law has led to transistor density growing at 35% per year, creating a vast increase in the number of calculations that can be performed per second, for a constant dollar expenditure. Great! Then, we are told there are 18x more people working in transistor-related research today than in 1971.

Bill Janeway has an interesting story on technological revolutions

November 26, 2018 Eric Lofgren 0

At the frontier, advanced progress is made by trial-and-error and error and error and error. Efficiency in the allocation of resources means doing this calculus of net-present value, expected future cash flows, cost versus benefits. But, at the frontier, you can’t define the benefits.

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