A mixed strategy for acquisition processes

Here is an interesting blog post from Arnold Kling on why natural selection in nature and human society always prefers heterogeneity:

One question that I do not think gets asked enough is why evolution sometimes follows a mixed strategy. In game theory, a mixed strategy is one where you do not always make the same move in the same situation. For example, if you play “rock, paper, scissors” with the same person many times, and you always play “rock,” that is a bad idea. You need to mix up your moves.

 

Evolution plays a mixed strategy when, instead of giving everyone identical traits, it gives different traits to different people… If evolution were following a pure strategy, either everyone would be autistic or no one would be. Either everyone would be schizophrenic, or no one would be.

 

… One intriguing example of a mixed strategy concerns conformity. Some people are very inclined to conform to the norms of those around them, and some people are inclined the other way. Why would evolution want both types of people around? A plausible answer is: if there were too few conformists, then society would probably fracture; but if there are too many conformists, then bad cultural norms would stick around too long.

In defense acquisition, there is literally only one path from concept to military program to fielded systems. OK, the Adaptive Acquisition Framework has created six pathways. But they are extremely well-defined, share most of the same processes, and in any case oversight is trying to make them all uniform again.

DoD officials believe in homogeneity. Oversight uses the simple fact that something is nonconforming as positive proof that a program is “bad.” Everybody then nods their head. “Yes, of course you need a 500 page product support strategy before you start a prototype.”

This is a recipe for disaster in a dynamic and innovative world. Nonconformists like John Boyd, Hyman Rickover, and others have had major impacts on United States defense. But you don’t hear much about nonconformists these days — or their lifespan in DoD is very short lived.

DoD acquisition must pursue a mixed strategy. The value of a mixed strategy is obvious when systems are put to the test. In the natural world and markets, survival is a daily challenge. However, a military can go generations without really being put to the test. It is easy for officials to forget what survival looks and feels like.