If you look back historically, there are very few situations where one side has a big enough technology advantage that it actually causes a win-loss scenario. Most technology stacks are within 10 or 20 percent of each other. One type of gun versus another or one plane versus another.
What it comes down to is an attrition war. How fast can you replace the resources you’re spending? Which is why in World War II you see oil fields being so critical, and raw materials so critical, because the German tanks get wiped out you need to replace them. What it comes down to is: how much stuff can you build?; how quickly?; and can you sustain that over a long period of time? If you look historically, that is the actual root cause of win-or-loss condition.
… I think that bubbles are created when previously competitive entities are no longer contested by the forces of reality.
That was Chris Power, CEO of Hadrian, on the Venture Stories podcast, The State and Future of Space in 2021. There certainly has been a lot of talk about JADC2 and the use of technology to defeat enemies. I think there is some wisdom to what Chris was saying that it is unlikely that the US can stay so far ahead of the Chinese, even if that is the goal.
US military planners may expect a back-and-forth in terms of capabilities — action and reaction. Despite all our lessons from Clauswitz, Hart, Boyd, and others, the US may find itself in an attrition-style of warfare. That should scare the pants off of US military planners considering how quickly the Chinese can build infrastructure and physical products.
Though our allies provide a great source of hope, here’s another one. When I look at how the US lost its edge in manufacturing (well documented by Seymour Melman), perhaps it enabled the US to move into software and information tech. The future of manufacturing will likely be software defined, as in 3D printing.
By becoming the world’s hub for digital technology, the US may be well placed to disrupt the manufacturing industry in the next 10 or so years. It’s often easier to create new industries than reform old ones. On the other hand, China’s advantage of cheap labor and resource integration may hold it back from disruptive changes to the manufacturing process. But this speculative future is still a ways off, and US military planners should be hedging their bets.
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