Covid-19 proved the United States was industrially unprepared for an emergency. Pre-pandemic N95 mask production stood at just 4 percent the peak requirement of 100 million per month. Production isn’t expected to reach 70 percent of the requirement until January 2021. And that’s for a simple product. Speeding up the innovative process is perhaps more important, such as in the search for a vaccine.
Covid has made clear the importance of industrial preparedness. Pandemics are low probability/high impact events, sometimes called Black Swans. It is government’s job to prepare for systemic threats. Pandemics is one area. Global warming another. Armed conflict a third.
Total wars of the past were prolonged engagements, requiring great industrial mobilization. Foreign advances in anti-access/area denial, electronic warfare, counter space systems, hypersonics, and more make it increasingly unlikely that rapid US military dominance can be expected.
A major difference between a potential future conflict and the World Wars is that the US will not have the luxury of sitting on the sidelines for years, gearing up its military industrial capacity by servicing foreign combatants. From only 2,000 aircraft delivered in 1939, it took a full four years before the US reached the annual requirement of 50,000 aircraft.
The Department of Defense can do two major things to mitigate the impact of black swan events like pandemics and global conflict.
First, the government must fund critical materials and domestic industrial infrastructure as dedicated programs in themselves. Today, the government funds military platform and expects the supply chain to manage itself. There should be dedicated consideration to reducing lead times.
Materials like rare earths, steel, and aluminum are the furthest upstream in the production sequence. There must be a combination of stockpiling and subsidization of mining and processing. Industrial facilities including lab equipment, advanced tooling, 3D printing, test equipment, and so forth should be funded directly.
By funding the upstream production process, surge capacity will increase. This doesn’t have to come at the expense of military platforms. They will be made cheaper by upstream investment, which also helps to modularize and improve system design.
Second, the government must continue adopting commercial practices. Studies have found the added cost of doing business with the government at 25 percent, and that is likely underestimated. By making the government an attractive buyer to dual-use firms, surge capacity and innovation can be greatly increased.
It is the responsibility of government to plan and invest in domestic industry so that the nation isn’t caught unprepared for the next life-or-death emergency.
Perhaps this is something to highlight that the government has executed on is some areas, and at a level much further than what I’ve seen in industry. https://www.airforcemag.com/dods-black-start-exercises-explore-what-happens-when-utilities-go-dark/