Think about that for a second. When there is a 90% that companies are bad, and a 90% accuracy rate being able to identify them, I still have a 50% hit rate of being right. So someone with 90% accuracy is no better than flipping a coin.
At the frontier, advanced progress is made by trial-and-error and error and error and error. Efficiency in the allocation of resources means doing this calculus of net-present value, expected future cash flows, cost versus benefits. But, at the frontier, you can’t define the benefits.
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