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black swan

Why monolithic defense programs are inherently fragile

March 27, 2021 Eric Lofgren 1

Mother Nature does not like anything too big… Mother Nature does not limit the interactions between entities; it just limits the size of its units. […]

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Effectiveness over Efficiency: Preparing the US Industrial Base for Mobilization

October 13, 2020 Eric Lofgren 0

Mike Petters, President and CEO of Huntington Ingalls Industries: “Lack of resiliency comes from an overemphasis on efficiency at expense of risk management. I was […]

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Nassim Taleb says prepare for the worst-case in fat-tailed events like pandemics and war

July 29, 2020 Eric Lofgren 1

Russ Roberts: Another way to say it–and, again, to put it into folksy terms that I also got from you–is that you care about–you don’t […]

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Government should prepare domestic industry for black swan events

July 18, 2020 Eric Lofgren 1

Covid-19 proved the United States was industrially unprepared for an emergency. Pre-pandemic N95 mask production stood at just 4 percent the peak requirement of 100 […]

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Why are defense programs so big?

May 13, 2020 Eric Lofgren 5

Mother Nature does not like anything too big… Mother Nature does not limit the interactions between entities; it just limits the size of its units… […]

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