In my opinion the present situation in this regard is worse than I have ever seen it. Further, I predict that the way the present bureaucracy would implement your [Packard’s] proposed directive will make matters still worse.
I’m not sure how these results support the idea that “a solid and funded test plan often mitigates future cost growth.” It sounds like if you were 10% over budget to first flight — and that reliably means you’ll be that much or over for the program — then engineering and requirements problems were the culprit and not testing.
One might think that for such a big order to be placed, the F-35 worked out all the development kinks. But it looks like a ploy to get a big contract, claim economy of scale savings, and fix the planes later. The contract was 40% of Lockheed’s total ordinary revenue, and the US’s end of the bill looks to be nearly one-third of the entire aircraft procurement budget for Navy and Air Force, which came in at about $36 billion in the FY 2019 request.
Imagine you’re the Deputy Secretary of Defense, and in walks a group of consultants who tell you that you can save $125 billion over five years if you act on their recommendations. You flip through their PowerPoint brief stacked with charts and buzz words like optimize, modernize, and agile enterprise.
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