Below are a few charts base on DoD’s procurement data from the P-1 docs FY 2001 to FY 2023. The dollars are normalized to FY 2023 dollars based on the Green Book inflation tables.
Note 1: the FY 2023 data is from the budget request (though a brief look at the appropriations act does not seem to have markedly changed the request). The FY 2022 data is based on enacted data.
Note 2: Missile Defense Agency procurement is not included (sorry, will add that soon! Missing THAAD, GMD, SM-3, and others… but may be difficult to break out the missile from related equipment like radar).
In the overview chart below of munitions accounts in Procurement, I added $5.3 billion from the supplemental appropriations in response to the Ukraine conflict for FY 2022 (in orange). FY 2023 supplementals are also significant but have not yet been collected. But it is quite clear that missiles have become a larger chunk of the pie, while ammunition as relatively shrunk, particularly after FY 2019.
Next, let’s take a look at the missiles and missile equipment data according to propulsion type. Of course, the “Glide” munitions like JDAM, JSOW, SDB, and SDB II do not have a propulsion system. Cruise missiles like JASSM, LRASM, LRSO, SLAM, TLAM, and ACM use turbofan engines. You’ll see a small wedge for hypersonic boost glide weapons like LRHW and ARRW requested in the FY23 budget. And then the large bulk of missiles are rocket motor, like JAGM, HARM, AARGM, AMRAAM, Sidewinder, Javelin, Stinger, MLRS, NSM, ESSM, and so forth. (FY22-23 supplementals not included.)
Finally, I’ll give you a breakout of missiles by mission area. I could have done a better job here breaking out the largest category of “Precision” which includes MLRS, JASSM, SLAM, APKWS, SDB, and others. Air Defense is primarily Patriot but also includes M-SHORAD, Stinger, and surface to air AMRAAMs. Air Superiority is easy: just AMRAAM and Sidewinders. Anti-Armor is mostly Javelin, TOW 2, JAGM, and Hellfire. Anti-Ship includes LRASM, Standard Missile, ESSM, NSM, and SLAM [UPDATE: A reader corrected me, ESSM and SM are moved to Air Defense]. I put LRSO into a strategic category by itself (not shown here). SEAD is suppression of air defense, or anti-radiation missiles, such as HARM and AARGM. I also stuck ATACMS in that mission, but it does more than that.
I’m still building out the dataset and a lot more fields I’m tracking. You might not be surprised that $7.3 billion out of $8.5 billion in missile procurement went to either Lockheed or Raytheon. I’ll also try to add ammunition data like 120MM, Hydra rockets, and small arms. If you want early access to the data, or found errors in the above, please let me know!
One correction: the SM-2 and ESSM are primarily anti-air missiles. SM-2 has an anti-ship capability, but that’s an unlikely use case. ESSM is entirely anti-air. Great breakdown of data.
Thanks! Made the updates to my file and this post!
I know I’m late to comment on this article but I just wanted to appreciate the way you broke down the data.
Any chance you have an idea of what percentage of 155mm munitions are now guided/smart?
Unfortunately the quantities were not reported in the P-1s, maybe in the j-docs. But the proportion of 155 excalibur funding vs other artillery is here: https://acquisitiontalk.com/2023/02/analysis-of-ammunition-procurement-fy-1999-fy-2023/