CSIS report on inadequate surge capacity for munitions

This table on surge capacity from Mark Cancian at CSIS has been making the rounds but I’ll repost it here because it is so important. As you go through it and the multiple years just to replenish inventory provided to Ukraine — a rather low end conflict compared to what you might expect if something were to happen with China — consider what the United States achieved in World War II.

The heaviest B-24 Liberator loss in WW II was the raid on the Ploiești oil refineries, where 53 B-24s were lost. That’s actually quite a lot considering the US has about 140 total bombers in the inventory today. Yet by mid-1944 the Willow Run plant was producing one B-24 an hour, meaning the Ploiești loss could be made up with a little more than two days’ production. And that doesn’t count simultaneous production at the Consolidated plant in San Diego, which was the initial B-24 manufacturer. Of course, that was deep into industrial mobilization, but still an astounding fact.

Here’s a little bit on cases for pessimism and optimism:

Optimism – Most inventories are okay. These six systems do not represent the full spectrum of U.S. inventories. Most items provided to Ukraine have been in small numbers, or from areas that have large inventories or production capacities. For example, the United States has provided 108 million rounds of small arms ammunition, but U.S. production is about 8.6 billion rounds per year, so this transfer is easy to accommodate. The United States provided 300 M113 armored personnel carriers but has thousands available because the Army is moving to a different system.

 

Pessimism – Not enough data to assess. Replacement times for several important systems cannot be calculated because not enough data is publicly available. For example, DOD cites sending Ukraine over 46,000 “other anti-armor systems” (not Javelin but types not specified), over 50 counter-artillery radars (various kinds), laser-guided rocket systems, unmanned aerial systems, and unmanned coastal defense vessels.

#Make Industrial Mobilization Cool Again.