Kendall: KC-46 might have worked better if not fixed-price; Pegasus now cleared for 97% of US aircraft. (Air Force Magazine) “The KC-46 “was supposed to be a low-risk program,” but the Pentagon’s acquisition enterprise “didn’t look closely enough at the design,” which was “more risky … than people realized, at the time,” Kendall allowed. Kendall was principle undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics when Boeing’s entry won the KC-X competition in 2011… “I always held KC-46 up as the archetypical fixed-price development program,” Kendall, said, noting that it “met all five” of his criteria at the time for a program that could safely be conducted under a fixed-price contract, but “we still got into deep, big trouble.” He added that “we might not have, if it had been a cost-plus program, and the government supervised the contractor more aggressively.” … Kendall’s five requirements for entering into a fixed-price contract, which he set out in 2012, said the program must have: Firm requirements; Low technical risk; Qualified suppliers; Financial capability to absorb overruns; Motivation to continue.”
Lawmakers want clarity on JADC2 efforts: Who’s getting what, when? (Breaking Defense) “… military service has its own separate effort to address the JADC2 requirements concept and that it’s unclear how the efforts are progressing and how much they’ll cost. In a briefing to reporters, HASC committee staff said the report will help the committee “fully understand the state of play and understand how to support these efforts.” … In addition to the review, the subcommittee also wants a GAO report on JADC2 efforts that includes an overview of the Pentagon’s current investment plans, schedules and cost estimates; an evaluation of its process for monitoring those costs; and an assessment of the department’s challenges in developing and implementing JADC2 efforts.”
Pentagon promises cruise missile defense lead after lawmakers threaten salary of DOD’s No. 2. (The Hill) “The Pentagon has promised it will soon appoint a lead agency for developing defenses against cruise missiles after a House subcommittee sought to impose restrictions on the budget… The pledge comes after Cooper included a provision in the subcommittee’s portion of the annual defense authorization bill that would limit 10 percent of the travel salary for Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks in fiscal 2023 over the inaction… the Biden administration’s 2023 budget request “is the first ever to include funding ($278 million) for over-the-horizon radars specifically for advancing cruise missile defense of the homeland.””
Houston startup unveils stargazer, a Mach 9 hypersonic spaceplane concept. (Auto Evolution) “The first step was to design and build a tech demonstration engine, which it describes as a “zero-emissions, next-generation rocket engine.” This was followed by several experiments carried out at various hypersonic wind tunnels and propulsion test facilities… The company says it will kick off subsonic and supersonic flight tests for the scaled drone as soon as next year. Considering how much it’s achieved in just two years, it’s possible that a Houston-made Mach 9 spaceplane will be taking to the sky very soon.”
Pentagon’s new AI chief vows to crack ‘bureaucratic inertia’ on tech advances. (Bloomberg) “[Craig] Martell’s arrival is a boost for the Pentagon, which is seeking to attract expert talent from the private sector. Martell, who said his first day at the Pentagon on Monday was “overwhelming,” added he had taken a “not trivial” pay cut to do the job… “For me, whenever there are lives on the line, humans should be in the loop,” he said, adding the Pentagon needed to have robust ethical guidelines for the use of artificial intelligence in warfare and to ensure that machines would be 99.999% correct before any were deployed.”
HASC seapower mark saves 5 ships, backs Marine Corps call for 31 amphibs. (USNI News) “… support a call from Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger to set a minimum level for U.S. amphibious forces and keeps four Whidbey Island-class dock landing ships (LSDs) in the fleet – USS Germantown (LSD-42), USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44), USS Tortuga (LSD-46) and USS Ashland (LSD-48).” … “Prohibiting retirement of the LSDs certainly gets after that plan for that program.” … In addition, the mark prevents the committee from losing guided-missile cruiser USS Vicksburg (CG-69). Last month, Navy officials told Congress that the service has spent about $300 million per hull to modernize Vicksburg and Tortuga… Not contained in the subcommittee mark is the fate of the nine Freedom-class Littoral Combat Ships the Navy asked to decommission well ahead of their expected service lives.”
Raytheon moving global HQ to Arlington. (Virginia Business) “Raytheon Technologies Corp. announced Tuesday that it will relocate its global headquarters from Massachusetts to Arlington in the third quarter of this year, a move that will see four of the top five U.S.-based aerospace and defense contractors headquartered in Virginia. Raytheon’s new corporate headquarters will be in Arlington’s Rosslyn neighborhood, near company’s existing Raytheon Intelligence & Space business located there. Raytheon has not sought or accepted financial incentives from the state, it said in a release. Raytheon has 600 facilities in 44 states and territories, and all four of its business units have operations in Virginia, where it has more than 1,000 employees and is a top employer in Loudoun County and Falls Church. The company, which employs more than 180,000 people worldwide, reported $64.38 billion in 2021 sales.”
Air Force sees 2 business models for integrating robotic wingmen into combat formations. (Fed Scoop) “The Air Force will be “trying to take multiple capabilities from within a family of systems and execute them within a program office, but not as a single rigid, monolithically integrated platform, while at the same time having different program offices building different pieces of the solution that can still be interoperable and work together,” Tim Grayson, special assistant to the secretary of the Air Force, said Thursday during an event hosted by the Hudson Institute… “We’ve even seen some of this in some of the studies that have been done between NGAD and B-21, you know, where there could be a little bit of … dynamic mix and match there of who’s going to form the offensive line, so to speak, and who’s going to be the quarterback,” he added. However, integration of compatible data links and software will be essential.”
First F-35 aggressor dedicated to replicating Chinese threats unveiled. (The Warzone) “The U.S. Air Force formally re-established the 65th Aggressor Squadron (AGRS) on June 9 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada. The unit will exclusively fly the F-35A Lightning II and dedicate its work to replicating the advanced airpower capabilities that are emerging from China… The 65th AGRS will be equipped with early-production F-35As, the first of which – revealed at Nellis on June 9 in its new aggressor scheme – was initially delivered to the resident 422nd Test and Evaluation Squadron (TES) in 2013… Lt. Gen. David Nahom, the deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on May 17 that contract ADAIR companies are not able to provide a worthwhile aggressor capability for training… so ACC has instead focused on creating an in-house F-35 aggressor force. “
China reveals new rapid-fire done launch system. (Asia Times) “Chinese aerospace firm AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Group filed a patent for a drone launch system that catapults drones into the air without emitting light, sound or exhaust, potentially overcoming the limitations of traditional bungee catapults and rocket boosters… The new launch system is also capable of launching drones in quick succession, taking only up to five seconds to return to launch position. However, the technology remains untested. “Whether it’s useful, it remains to be seen,” says Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank…. China’s new drone launch technology may improve the survivability of its drone swarm systems, notably the ASN-301/JWS-01 anti-radiation drone, which may play a critical role in an invasion of Taiwan… The ASN-301/JWS-01 is essentially a Chinese copy of the Israeli Harpy loitering munition. In 1994, China purchased an undisclosed number of Harpy drones from Israel, and in 2003 China contacted Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to upgrade their units. However, US pressure forced Israel to abandon its contract to upgrade.”
This is our best look yet at China’s knockoff of the US Navy’s Sea Hunter. (The Warzone) “In the user’s first post, they state that the USV was apparently domestically developed by a company called Zhejiang North China Intelligence Technology beginning in late 2015 in hopes of realizing a desire for a stealthy USV with high-performance navigation and intelligence systems… Whether or not China’s Sea Hunter USV ends up being anywhere near as successful as Sea Hunter is yet to be seen, but it looks like testing is now expanding for the ship so we will probably be seeing more of it soon.”
Navy Killer: The Army wants Precision Strike Missile to sink ships at sea. (The National Interest) “”We did have a breakthrough in PrSM and that’s with the extended range propulsion. With ramjet propulsion, we’re very confident that the missile is going to go hundreds of kilometers more [than 500km] and we’re working on that… “We’re not stopping there, right? We’re so confident in this missile that we’ve moved on to focusing on the seeker, the seeker on the front end of that missile is going to give it an enhanced capability to go after maritime targets,” Rafferty said.”
Stop calling switchblades ‘drones’ — it’s causing policy confusion. (Defense News) “… the Switchblade is a weapon, not a UAV or what most people think about as a drone. Yes, it flies and can be guided in real time, but it was clearly designed and intended to be used as a weapon… When clear of the launch tube, its folded wings pop out and electric engine powers up, allowing the weapon to fly up to 25 miles from its launch point. The operator controls the Switchblade remotely by data link, using the camera in the weapon’s nose to navigate to the target area. Once the target is designated by the operator, the weapon automatically guides and crashes itself into the target, detonating the explosive warhead. Contrast this to remotely piloted aircraft, which may deliver independent munitions, but are intended to be recovered and flown again and again… The differentiator is obvious: Munitions are designed to achieve kinetic effects through self-destruction. UAVs, on the other hand, are designed for reuse.”
British $2.5 billion research push targets space sensors, hypersonic tech. (Defense News) “The program, called the Science & Technology Portfolio, will aim to underpin development of essential future military capabilities beyond the next generation, the MoD said in a statement. Efforts include the development of a hypersonic weapon demonstrator, new space capabilities, expanded research into artificial intelligence, advanced materials and nuclear submarine systems… It includes information about 25 programs in the portfolio expected to attract significant funding and collaborative opportunities for industry and academia.” [That’s 2.5 billion over 5 years]
Netherlands buys not 46 by 52 F-35s, extra Tomahawks, and MQ-9s. (Bulgarian Military) “The planned new purchases by the Dutch Ministry of Defense are worth approximately $ 5 billion, an increase of nearly 40% from the recently announced $ 12.4 billion… The ultimate goal of the Dutch authorities is to achieve a commitment with NATO to allocate 2% of the country’s GDP to defense. This share was 1.43% in the Netherlands last year… Government circles in Amsterdam have commented that the kingdom is considering an order for an unspecified number of highly mobile artillery missile systems [HIMARS].”
Lockheed expects to begin deliveries of F-16 combat jets in 2024. (Yahoo!) “Lockheed Martin Corp expects to produce its new-build F-16 fighter jets next year and commence deliveries in 2024, its chief financial officer Jesus Malave said on Wednesday. The company has a list of key U.S. allies including Bahrain, Taiwan, Slovakia and Jordan eager to purchase the jet. Malave flagged that hiring new workforce and training employees to build the aircraft was a “little bit of a challenge” for the company than expected… In April, the U.S. State Department approved the potential sale of up to eight F-16 aircraft and related equipment to Bulgaria, in a deal valued at $1.673 billion, and said Lockheed will be the principal contractor.”
Mr. Kendall tells a good story, but I was there. It was not hard to find reputable analysts telling OSD that the KC-46 was much riskier than it was being depicted — that the requirements were NOT firm, the design was not merely a modified commercial design, that a fixed-price contract would end up being more expensive due to engineering changes, etc. Nobody wanted to listen, for the usual reasons.
It’s hard to imagine that RVS and boom design, maybe one or two other things, were so “complex” and “risky.” How much of those problems are software in nature? That might give a clue as to whether Boeing simply dropped the ball. Perhaps AF should have used milestone based fixed-price payments so that there was incremental cash flow based on actual progress. But I’m skeptical that cost-plus contract and more government involvement would have improved outcomes… perhaps just resulted in a much higher cost base from which to estimate production units. After all, there was a reason people pushed for fixed price around that time — we just get the pendulum swing of what we tried last time didn’t work so let’s try what we’ve forgotten doesn’t work. My personal simplified view is (1) partition contract tasks; (2) hybrid involvement where neither govt nor prime is the sole LSI; and (3) keep money flexible enough to cut your losses, take opportunities.