China has become a global space power after decades of investment. According to the 2015 U.S. DoD Annual Report to Congress, China’s progress in the development of its space program has been mirrored by developments in its counter-space program:
“China possesses the most rapidly maturing space program in the world. In parallel with its space program, China continues to develop a variety of capabilities designed to limit or prevent the use of space-based assets by adversaries during a crisis or conflict, including the development of directed energy weapons and satellite jammers.”
While China’s space program is dual-use, the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] is thought to have strong influence. The program’s activities are leveraged for both military and civilian purposes. This arrangement is an important enabler of China’s counter-space program growth in two ways. First, it allows the civilian China National Space Administration (CNSA) and supporting academic, research and industry infrastructure, including CASIC and CASC, to acquire technology and “know-how” from Western space programs without being constrained by arms embargoes. Through CMI and the dual-use nature of the program, this technology subsequently can be applied for military purposes.
That was an excellent report from Tate Nurkin et al. at Jane’s IHS Markit (see citation at the bottom). Here’s a part on Artificial Intelligence:
AI will be a powerful force multiplier for the PLA, allowing it to stay ahead of the disruptive changes intelligent weapon systems will bring to warfare. This will especially be the case if China surpasses the United States in developing AI, a possibility that should be considered, given China’s ambition, resources, technology and talent acquisition approaches and other structural advantages discussed below. The ambition is certainly there. As Hongbin Zha, an AI researcher and professor at Peking University, noted: “China hopes to leap-frog the United States and other Western countries by vast and fast investment in the AI industry.”
And here is a bit on hypersonic technologies, which has been getting a lot of press recently:
China may view the development of HGV technology as an area in which it can not only match the United States but perhaps surpass it, and thus achieve a degree of strategic parity without resorting to methods such as increasing the size of its nuclear arsenal.
Finally, some of the conclusion:
China is already challenging long-standing assumptions about U.S. advantage in key domain and capability areas, including in advanced weapons systems, causing the U.S. Defense Community to reevaluate many of its most strongly-held truths about U.S. innovation and military superiority. Claims cited in this paper that China has surpassed the United States in IEPS [Integrated Electronic Propulsion System] are likely overstated, but reflect a growing sense of China’s confidence in its industrial outputs (or at least some of them) and a willingness to publicly call into question U.S. technological superiority in a key technology area.
Source: “China’s Advanced Weapons Systems”. May 12, 2018. Lead Author: Tate Nurkin. Contributing Authors: Kelly Bedard, James Clad, Cameron Scott, Jon Grevatt. Prepared for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Jane’s by IHS Markit.
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